Probability is one of the clearest, more straightforward disciplines within mathematics. Unfortunately, almost nothing in mathematics is murkier and more misleading than… probability. WHAT?! Belgian mathematician Maurice Kraitchik posed a simple question about wagering wallets, and in doing so he revealed a paradoxical mismatch between a raw, indisputable math conclusion and common sense logic. Why does the math say one thing and reality says another? What do we do when the numbers don’t lie, but we know they aren’t telling the whole truth? Probability density functions. Bayesian subjectivist analysis. You can put it all together and still not be able to square the math with the simple nagging logic that tells you something different. Maybe there are some antinomical paradoxes we just have to live with. And maybe that’s okay. ** SOURCES ** Merryfield, K., Viet, N., & Watson, S. (1997). The Wallet Paradox. The American Mathematical Monthly, 104(7), 647-649. doi:10.2307/2975058 Carroll, M., Jones, M., & Rykken, E. (2001). The Wallet Paradox Revisited. Mathematics Magazine, 74(5), 378-383. doi:10.2307/2691032 Kraitchik, M. (1942). Mathematical Recreations. W. W. Norton. ** LINKS ** Vsauce2: TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@vsaucetwo Twitter: https://twitter.com/VsauceTwo Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/VsauceTwo Talk Vsauce2 in The Create Unknown Discord: https://discord.gg/tyh7AVm Vsauce2 on Reddit: https://www.reddit.com/r/vsauce2/ Hosted and Produced by Kevin Lieber Instagram: https://instagram.com/kevlieber Twitter: https://twitter.com/kevinlieber Podcast: null Research and Writing by Matthew Tabor https://twitter.com/TaborTCU Editing by John Swan https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCJuSltoYKrAUKnbYO5EMZ2A Huge Thanks To Paula Lieber https://www.etsy.com/shop/Craftality Vsauce's Curiosity Box Store: null #education #vsauce #maths