In a recent interview with TASS, Russian Finance Minister Tuliannov revealed Russia's intentions to seek Renminbi loans from China, sparking widespread attention. In today's global political and economic landscape, Sino-Russian relations are closely watched, with Renminbi loans being a key issue. Why did Russia choose to borrow Renminbi from China? This move reflects Russia's response strategy to Western sanctions and how it might affect economic relations between China and Russia. What impact will Renminbi loans have on Sino-Russian trade and regional stability? Especially against the backdrop of current international turmoil and frequent trade frictions, will this move alter the regional economic landscape and power dynamics? Can Renminbi loans solve Russia's economic challenges? Perhaps more importantly, will this measure make Russia more dependent on China, thereby triggering other geopolitical risks?
According to reports, in September of last year, Russian media revealed that an official mentioned the possibility of the Kremlin borrowing from China to promote the development and investment of infrastructure projects in the Far East. Although there are no specific details, the news suggests that Russia is prepared to borrow from China for infrastructure investment. However, as of now, Russia and China have not announced any relevant loan agreements. The news also indicates that during wartime, the Russian government faces "significant pressure" on its finances. Last year, the defense budget was adjusted to exceed $100 billion, equivalent to spending $270 million per day.
Reports indicate that the Russian government has emphasized Russia's good GDP and development status, with President Putin announcing a 3.6% year-on-year GDP growth in 2023, higher than the global average, and most industries unaffected by sanctions. However, US media believe that this growth is mainly due to the expansion of the military-industrial complex and has not flowed back to the public. On the contrary, the Russian credit market is active, but the standard of living has declined: the number of people holding three or more loans increased from 8.7 million to 11.2 million within 18 months, and bank loans far exceed economic growth.
Russian Finance Minister Siluanov stated that Russia is discussing the feasibility of introducing "Renminbi loans" with China because budget regulations allow for the introduction of Renminbi loans, discussions began last year, but consensus has not yet been reached. Russian media claimed that the Renminbi has become a "hard currency" in the Russian market, with a high rate of currency exchange between the two countries, and Renminbi accounting for a quarter of Russians' foreign currency savings. In this context, it is convenient for Russians to use Renminbi domestically, and almost all banks can exchange it.
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