Worst ever Covid variant? Omicron B.1.1.529 Increased contagion Immune escape Sicker people WHO, VOC https://www.who.int/news/item/26-11-2021-classification-of-omicron-(b.1.1.529)-sars-cov-2-variant-of-concern The Technical Advisory Group on SARS-CoV-2 Virus Evolution Independent group of experts First reported to WHO from South Africa on 24th November 2021 South Africa, infections have increased steeply, coinciding with the detection of B.1.1.529 variant The first known confirmed B.1.1.529 infection was from a specimen collected on 9th November 2021 Preliminary evidence suggests an increased risk of reinfection with this variant The number of cases of this variant appears to be increasing in almost all provinces in South Africa Current SARS-CoV-2 PCR diagnostics continue to detect this variant. For one widely used PCR test, one of the three target genes is not detected (called S gene dropout or S gene target failure) This variant may have a growth advantage. How did the new variant develop? https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-021-03552-w Professor Francois Balloux, Computational Biology Systems, University College London Mutated during a chronic infection of a person whose immune system was already weakened by an untreated HIV/Aids infection Botswana Discovered, November 11th (collected 9th) 2021 in Botswana South Africa 77 confirmed cases 90% of new cases in Gauteng, probably B.1.1.529 Early signs of rapid spread in Gauteng province, 900 cases per day May have spread to eight other provinces in South Africa SA, fully vaccinated, 24% Israel https://www.telegraph.co.uk/global-health/science-and-disease/new-coronavirus-variant-reason-concern-say-researchers/?li_source=LI&li_medium=liftigniter-onward-journey 1 returnee from Malawi Two other people suspected of having the variant are also in quarantine All three were fully vaccinated Prime Minister Naftali Bennett We are currently on the verge of a state of emergency Belgium https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OfwoROrBiVE 1 case Came from Egypt to Belgium on November 11th First symptoms on November 22nd Hong Kong https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Hm-WzJ0KR0M Two cases, from next door in quarantine hotel Traveller from SA Penny Moore, virologist, University of Witwatersrand, Johannesburg https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/nov/25/what-do-we-know-about-the-new-worst-ever-covid-variant Breakthrough infections have been reported following, Johnson & Johnson, Pfizer-BioNtech, Oxford-AstraZeneca R = 2 so far SA, National Institute for Communicable Diseases Cases, + 2,465 (nearly double yesterdays) 32 mutations in the spike protein 10 on RBD (Delta variant has 8 mutations) Beta (SA) variant has 3 Younger people appear to be contracting and spreading BioNTech-Pfizer need two weeks to assess new variant's impact Would need two weeks at most to assess how well its coronavirus vaccine works against B.1.1.529 may require an adjustment of our vaccine if the variant spreads globally Global spread WHO advises risk-based, scientific approach to travel restrictions risk-based and scientific approach to travel restrictions WHO spokesman Christian Lindmeier At this point, implementing travel restrictions is being cautioned against UK flight bans so far 700 arrivals per day to UK from SA South Africa, Namibia, Lesotho, Botswana, Eswatini, Zimbabwe Recent arrivals from southern Africa will also tracked down and offered tests Germany, Italy, Israel, Kenya, Singapore, Japan, France, Bahrain, Czech Republic have also suspended flights European Commission, called on members to ban flights Sajid Javid very live discussions about adding to the red list Professor Danny Altmann, immunologist Imperial College We thought delta was the dominant variant and nothing could displace it – this looks potentially horrible enough to displace it, if it is allowed to spread. We have all become pandemic fatigued, yet if this was a report of a terrorist threat, we would now be raising the threat level from amber to red. Professor Madhukar Pai, global health, McGill University This is what happens when we leave three billion plus people unvaccinated Vaccines can be tweaked if needed Dr Anthony Fauci Flight ban possible We need to get the facts no indication it has yet reached the US New variant is a red flag Until it's properly tested... we don't know whether or not it evades the antibodies that protect you against the virus Angelique Coetzee, South African Medical Association For now, it is a storm in a tea cup https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-59426277 Peter Horby, Professor of Emerging Infectious Diseases, University of Oxford many red flags - more than we would've expected or ever planned for