Are alien civilizations likely to be younger or older than us in age? A basic question that seems insurmountable until we start detecting them. But even before that, we can use some logical deduction using lifetime distribution statistics to determine the most plausible answer to this question. Join us today for an explanation of our new research paper on this topic. You can now support our research program and the Cool Worlds Lab at Columbia University: https://www.coolworldslab.com/support Get Stash here! null Thank-you to Kevin Clark, Tom Widdowson, Denny Smith, Stephanie Hackley, Mark Sloan, Laura Sanborn, Kolos Kantor, Patrick Herman, Abel Aganbegyan, Claudio Bottaccini, Daniel Brunk, Douglas Daughaday, Scott Fincher, James Kindred, Andrew Jones, Jason Allen, Steven Baldwin, Jason Black, Stuart Brownlee, Shivam Chaturvedi, David Denholm, Tim Dorais, Glen Downton, Eneko Xabier, Elizondo Urrestarazu, Gordon Fulton, Sean Griffiths, Peter Halloran, John Jurcevic, Niklas Kildal, Jack Kobernick, Wes Kobernick, Valeri Kremer, Marc Lijoi, Sheri Loftin, Branden Loizides, Anatoliy Maslyanchuk, Blair Matson, Ocean Mcintyre, Laini Mitchell, Jeffrey Needle, André Pelletier, Juan Rivillas, Bret Robinson, Zenith Star, Lauren Steely, Ernest Stefan-Matyus, Mark Steven, Elena West, Barrett York, Tristan Zajonc, Preetumsingh Gowd, Shaun Kelsey, Chuck Wolfred, David Vennel, Emre Dessoi, Fahid Naeem, Francisco Rebolledo, Hauke Laging, James Falls, Jon Adams, Michael Gremillion, Pierce Rutherford, Trev Kline, Tristan Leger, Lasse Skov, Takashi Hanai, Drew Roberts, Erynn Wilson, Ian Baskerville, Jacob Bassnett, John Shackleford, Marcus Undin, Martin Kroebel, Ian Johnstone, Geoff Suter, Ian Hopcraft, James Valdes, Phil Akrill-Misso, William Robertson, Elizabeth Orman & Giles Ingham. Video on planet cloaking: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=z1Pqqf_6J9w ::References used:: ► Kipping, Frank & Scharf, 2020, "Contact Inequality -- First Contact Will Likely Be With An Older Civilization", International Journal of Astrobiology: https://arxiv.org/abs/2010.12358 ► Benton, M. J., 1993, “The Fossil Record”, Vol 2 (Chapman & Hall, London, 1993) ► Civilization lifetimes figure from BBC Future/Nigel Hawtin: https://www.bbc.com/future/article/20190218-the-lifespans-of-ancient-civilisations-compared ► Olson et al., 2014, "Survival Probabilities of Adult Mongolian Gazelles", Journal of Wildlife Management, 78, 1: https://wildlife.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1002/jwmg.640 ► Battery lifetime figure from BatteryUniversity.com: https://batteryuniversity.com/learn/article/bu_1003a_battery_aging_in_an_electric_vehicle_ev ::Movies clips used:: ► Master & Commander: The Far Side of the World (2003) 20th Century Fox ► Noah (2014) Paramount Pictures ► Avatar (2009) 20th Century Fox ► Contact (1997) Warnos Bros. Pictures ► GI Joe Retaliation (2013) Paramount Pictures ► Terminator 3 (2003) Warners Bros. Pictures ► The House (2017) Warners Bros. Pictures ► X2 (2003) 20th Century Fox ► The Pursuit of Happyness (2006) Sony Pictures Releasing ► Into The Wild (2007) Paramount Vantage ► 300 (2006) Warner Bros. Pictures ► Cleopatra (1963) 20th Century Fox ► Gladiator (2000) Dreamworks Pictures ::TV clips used:: ► Andrew Marr's History of the World - BBC ► Star Trek the Next Generation - Paramount Television ::Other video footage used:: ► See https://bit.ly/34MwkyX ::Music:: Music used is licensed by SoundStripe.com (SS) [shorturl.at/ptBHI], or via Creative Commons (CC) Attribution License (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/), or with permission from the artist. ► "Shade Upon Thy Right Hand" by Hill, used with permission from the artist: https://hillmusic.bandcamp.com/album/shade-upon-thy-right-hand ► "Fable" by Stephen Keech licensed via SS ► "Cylinder Five" by Chris Zabriskie licensed under a CC Attribution license: http://chriszabriskie.com/cylinders/ ► "Painted Deserts" by Shimmer licensed via SS ► "It's Always Darkest Before the Dawn" by Hill licensed via SS ► "Cylinder Four" by Chris Zabriskie licensed under a CC Attribution license: http://chriszabriskie.com/cylinders/ ► "We Were Never Meant to Live Here" by Chris Zabriskie licensed under a CC Attribution license: http://chriszabriskie.com/neptuneflux/ ► "Fragmented" by Hill, used with permission from the artist: https://hillmusic.bandcamp.com/album/shade-upon-thy-right-hand ► "Stories About the World That Once Was" by Chris Zabriskie licensed under a CC Attribution license: http://chriszabriskie.com/cylinders/ ► "Waking Up" by Atlas licensed via SS ► "Ticking" by Alternative Endings licensed via SS ► "Trace Correction" by Indive licensed under a CC Attribution license: https://indive.bandcamp.com/ 0:00 Prologue 1:22 Technological Lockstep 6:57 Distribution of Civilization Lifetimes 19:17 Bayes vs The Cosmos 23:39 Temporal Bias 32:20 Credits #CivilizationLongevity #AncientAliens #CoolWorlds